Arbitrage risks: execution and settlement

Arbitrage maths assumes successful execution and matching settlement. This guide explains the main ways those assumptions can fail.

Risk2 min read Updated:

The second price moves

The first bet is accepted, then the opposite price drops or the market suspends. You're left with an open leg, a bet without its planned hedge.

  • Freshness indicators. ✓ means recently refreshed prices. ! asks you to check directly. A lock means stale or unavailable odds: don't use them to place bets.
  • DUAL. Open both sportsbook betslips together to reduce navigation time.
  • Open leg. Calculate the hedge price, stake and cost, and set a target-price alert.

Voids and obvious pricing errors

Sportsbook terms may permit a void for an obvious pricing error. If one leg is voided while the other stands, the planned arbitrage return no longer holds.

Unusually high returns need extra checking: a large price gap may be an error rather than an executable opportunity.

Different settlement rules

The same event can settle differently across sportsbooks in unusual circumstances. Important cases include:

  • Tennis retirement. Some markets are voided; others settle after specified play or on the advancing player. Requirements vary by sportsbook and market.
  • Match tie-break. A deciding tie-break may be counted differently in game totals. Check both rules, particularly for middles.
  • Abandoned matches. Settlement may depend on resumption deadlines, completed innings or whether a market was already decided.
  • Overtime. Full-match totals and handicaps may include it while quarter or half markets do not. Verify the scope of both markets.

Board warnings. Flagged pairs describe known rule differences. The matching settlement rules filter excludes those pairs; it cannot eliminate every possible execution risk.

Limits and withdrawals

Stake limits or manual acceptance may leave one leg partially accepted. Track balances and verify the accepted amount. See Sportsbook account limits.

Your own mistakes

Wrong side, line, decimal place or similarly named event: any can break the pair. Before confirming, check event, market, line, side, odds and stake.

Questions

What if only one leg is accepted?

Use Open leg to assess available hedges and their costs. Keeping the position open also carries risk; a small hedge loss may be preferable.

What does the “Safe settlement only” filter mean?

The filter excludes known pairs with different rules for retirements, abandoned matches or overtime. Check both sportsbooks' terms yourself too.

Put it into practice

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